1. New York Yankees
Positives: The best rotation 1-5 in the A.L., the best hitting first and third basemen in the A.L., and surefire hall of famers at shortstop and closer. If that weren't enough, I like what they've done to upgrade their outfield, both defensively and offensively, by starting Gardner and getting Granderson to replace Damon and Matsui respectively. How could these guys not be considered the favorites to repeat as division, A.L., and even MLB, champions?
Negatives: It would be nice to see Posada recover quickly from his minor neck injury to contribute, as they're actually down to their third string catcher right now, but I'm sure there's no panic about it in the Bronx.
X-Factor: How will Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes react to what will essentially amount to swapping roles in the rotation/bullpen? Spoiler alert: quite well, thank you. The Yanks should be even better than last year, which is a very scary thought for the rest of this stacked division.
Record Prediction: 105-57
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Positives: Their rotation is young, somewhat inconsistent, but very, very talented, in spite of losing Scott Kazmir last year. Carlos Pena is a great source of power in the middle of the lineup, Longoria should be an all-star for the next decade, because of both his bat and glove, and Ben Zobrist should build off of a stellar season last year, now that he'll essentially be at one spot all year. Their biggest asset, however, is the best athlete in baseball, Carl Crawford, who has developed into the prototype for the "five tool" player. As long as he's playing his home games at the Trop, the Rays will have a chance.
Negatives: Ah, but there's the rub: how much longer will the Rays be able to keep this core in St. Pete? Crawford, Pena, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, B.J. Upton, Dioner Navarro, among others, are all entering contract years, and for the sake of argument, let's say that the Rays get off to a sub-.500 record in April, or something to that effect. How quick would management be to start selling off some of the aforementioned assets to the highest bidders? A promising season could go south very quickly if that were to happen.
X-Factor: B.J. Upton really needs to find the hitting stroke that made him such a big piece of their playoff run in '08. He's looked great this spring by all accounts, but it would be a disaster for this club's chances if we saw a repeat of his 2009 output. It might also help if Pat Burell, the team's designated hitter would, you know, hit the ball where the defense wasn't this year. A novel idea, I know.
Record Prediction: 96-66
3. Boston Red Sox
Positives: Pedroia and Ellsbury are two of the best at their respective positions, and Boston's made some great moves over the past year by bringing in Victor Martinez and John Lackey, the latter of which should fit in nicely to an already impressive rotation with Beckett and Jon Lester. Marco Scutaro should also do a great job of taking over the shortstop position, and their bullpen should be as solid as ever.
Negatives: As much as I like a lot of their recent moves, it's hard to be overly impressed by Mike Cameron or Adrian Beltre as everyday starters, especially when you consider that they're trying to replace Jason Bay's production. That said, you know this team will fight to the end and push for a wildcard spot, so any positive contribution on the offensive end that they can get from these two will almost be considered a bonus.
X-Factor: Will David Ortiz be able to bounce back from a somewhat subpar season? The power numbers were there at the end, but another season of hitting .238 might not cut it in Beantown.
Record Prediction: 89-73
4. Baltimore Orioles
Positives: Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters (not to mention Nolan Reimold and Luke Scott) make up the best core of young every day talent that this franchise has seen in years. The Kevin Millwood signing should help the rotation not only in what he can bring to the field every five days, but he should also have a positive effect on an otherwise young and promising staff. Mike Gonzalez can't really be depended upon to be a healthy closer all season, but Jim Johnson and/or Cla Meredith would mostly likely be able to fill that void reasonably well in case of injury.
Negatives: Not sure how bringing in Lugo and Tejada will help with the bat, and in this division, it'll be hard to overcome even the smallest of deficiencies.
X-Factor: If Brian Roberts can overcome his offseason back issues and put up similar numbers as last year, you just never know, the Birds might have a chance to compete for the Wild Card.
Record Prediction: 80-82
5. Toronto Blue Jays
Positives: Aaron Hill and Adam Lind have great opportunities to once again put up all-star caliber numbers in 2010. Vernon Wells should provide a solid veteran presence in the lineup, and Ricky Romero has future ace written all over him. Figuratively speaking, of course.
Negatives: Without Halladay, this rotation is unsettled, unproven, and just doesn't have enough to compete with the New Yorks and Bostons of the world this year. The same can be said of the bullpen, and everyone in the lineup not mentioned above. It could definitely be a rough season north of the border.
X-Factor: Travis Snider could be a nice piece for this team. He had a bit of a rough 2009, but he's still very young, and as a former first round pick, obviously has all the talent in the world to be a big part of this roster for many years to come.
Record Prediction: 65-97
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