1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Positives: The Dodgers have two stud starting pitchers (Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley), a top tier closer (Broxton), and an impressive trio of young everyday players (Kemp/Ethier/Loney), all under the guidance of arguably the game's best manager. I know that the Rockies are a trendy pick to take this division, and they'll be make it a close race, but they just don't have what it takes to compete with all of the firepower mentioned above. Not in 2010, anyway.
Negatives: Russell Martin's health and lack of productivity in 2009 are a bit of a concern, but really, he's not going to make or break this team this year anymore than he did last year.
X-Factor: Getting Manny circa 2008 would be a huge boost to this lineup. If the three, four and five starters on this team can be even reasonably effective, there's no reason to think that there won't be another division title to celebrate in Hollywood.
Record Prediction: 92-70
2. Colorado Rockies
Positives: I see this team as being "L.A. Light", in that their positives are similar to what the Dodgers can boast, just not quite at that level. They have a nice young core with Tulo, Dexter Fowler and Brad Hawpe, and two talented starters at the top of their rotation (Jimenez and De La Rosa), all of which have strengths that play well to the ballpark. They made the playoffs last year (with a record that better than St. Louis', and just one game worse than the Phillies', mind you), and they have the talent to do it again.
Negatives: Huston Street is hurt (again), which creates a huge void at closer. I don't have much confidence in Franklin Morales or Rafael Betancourt, do you?
X-Factor: Will Colorado get the 2009 Todd Helton (151 GP, 86 RBI, .335 BA) or the 2008 version (83 GP, 29 RBI, .264 BA)? Sidebar here: can you think of a more underrated hitter, at least in the National League, over the past decade than Todd Helton? It really hurts me to give props to a former UT Vol, but he's a career .328 hitter, and can always be depended upon to be a solid source of power and average in the middle of that lineup. I know he plays in Colorado, but it's not Siberia. Give the man his due! Anyway...
Record Prediction: 89-73
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
Positives: Dan Haren is one of the best pitchers in the game, a bona fide losing streak stopper, and don't underestimate the possibility of Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy having solid seasons as well. They also have an athletic, strong hitting outfield (Jackson/Young/Justin Upton), and a pair of talented infielders looking to build off of their respective breakout seasons in '09 (Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds). Chad Qualls should once again do an admirable job of closing out games in the desert (24 saves in '09).
Negatives: This team will be searching for any sort of help in the fourth and fifth starter spot, and most of the bullpen looks a bit sketchy. Some of their young talent needs to prove that they can stay off the D.L. for an entire season.
X-Factor: Clearly the Snakes' season hinges on when, or unfortunately if, Brandon Webb can return from shoulder surgery. If he should miss the entire season, or is ineffective upon his return, that's going to be a big piece of their postseason puzzle that won't be able to be replaced.
Record Prediction: 82-80
4. San Francisco Giants
Positives: Pitching, Pitching, Pitching. Tim Lincecum is the two-time defending N.L. Cy Young award winner, Matt Cain is coming off of a 2009 that wasn't too shabby either (2.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), Jonathan Sanchez was among the league leaders is strikeouts (177), and Barry Zito is no longer a complete waste. Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, and Brian Wilson are the core of what is arguably the best bullpen in the National League.
Negatives: Hitting, Hitting, Hitting. Same old story in 'Frisco, meaning lots of low scoring losses that will ultimately cost them a chance of competing in the division. Sure, Sandoval is a rising star, but who's their next most fearsome hitter, Aubrey Huff? Let that one sink in for a little while.
X-Factor: If they can get anyone who can swing a bat, via trade or from one of their veterans stepping up, they just might surprise some people.
Record Prediction: 80-82
5. San Diego Padres
Positives: Adrian Gonzalez is a beast, Heath Bell is an all-star caliber closer, and their starting pitching has the possibility of not being entirely terrible, in spite of no longer having Jake Peavy.
Negatives: Name another Padre in the everyday lineup besides Gonzalez. Exactly. Perhaps they could compete in the P.C.L., but the N.L.? No way.
X-Factor: How long until Gonzalez gets shipped to a contender? The longer it takes, the longer he will be distracted; creating what can only be a negative clubhouse situation.
Record Prediction: 68-94
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